Gold prices dip in Asia as sentiment up on Chin PMIs, risk views grow - Sean Seshadri

Gold prices dipped in Asia on Thursday as regional signals on growth in China came in upbeat, aiding sentiment for more risk assets.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange dipped 0.26% to $1,170.85 a troy ounce. Silver futures on the Comex fell 0.21% to $16.447 a troy ounce, while copper futures edged up 0.04% as manufacturing data from China lifted sentiment for thw world's top importer of the industrial metal.

China reported Thursday that the semi-official CFLP manufacturing index came in at 51.7 for November, compared with a 51.0 level seen, and up from 51.2 the previous month. The CFLP non-manufacturing PMI came in at 54.7, compared to 54.0 last month, subsequent figures from the private Caixin manufacturing PMI rose to 50.9 in November, beating an expected 50.8 level.

The Caixin index has now been above the 50-point neutral level which separates expansion in activity from contraction for five straight months, adding to views that in the world's second-largest economy growth has stabilized thanks to a credit and construction boom.

Overnight, gold prices dropped once again on Wednesday, as widespread expectation of an interest-rate increase by the Federal Reserve in December dampened the metal's short-term outlook.

Investors reckon the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at a meeting next month, and the odds of a rate increase is now at 94%, according to Fed fund futures tracked by the CME. Since gold doesn't bear interest, it works hard to compete when interest rates climb. Thus, the price of gold is expected to remain weak in the coming month.

What is more, investors are also looking ahead to the Italian referendum this weekend, when the country will head to the polls to vote on a Constitutional reform. A “no” vote could be a sign of further political uncertainty and increase prices.

Meanwhile, gold demand in India, one of the globe's biggest buyers of the metal, is declining, with gold traders saying imports could fall to just a combined 60-70 tons over the next two months, noted Commmerzbank AG in a note to investors. India has launched a plan to swap nearly 86% of currency notes in circulation, hitting consumer demand during the peak season for weddings in the country where gold is a typical gift..

NYMEX crude quoted sharply weaker in Asia as API estimates, OPEC weigh - Sean Seshadri

Crude oil prices were last quoted sharply weaker heading into the Asian trading session on Wednesday as mixed industry inventory data from the U.S. and questions on OPEC's production plans weighed.

U.S. crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange were last quoted at $45.25 a barrel, down 3.89%.

Prices were weighed Tuesday by conflicting media comments that call into question OPEC's ability to come to agreement about a cut in production. OPEC members will meet Wednesday in Vienna, Austria.

The American Petroleum Institute late Tuesday said crude oil inventories fell 720,000 barrels last week, 120,000 barrels more than expected and which followed a draw of 1.28 million barrels the previous week.

Overnight, oil prices fell more than 3% on Tuesday, extending early losses amid growing doubts that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will be able to reach an agreement on a deal to curb output.

Global benchmark Brent futures fell sharply and last quoted down nearly 4% to levels around $47.35 a barrel.

OPEC is attempting to get its 14 member states, along with non-OPEC member Russia, to implement coordinated production cuts aimed at reducing a global supply glut that has seen prices more than halve since 2014.

Oil came under renewed selling pressure after Indonesia’s energy minister said Tuesday he’s “not optimistic” that OPEC will agree on a deal to rein in oversupply.

In September the producer cartel reached an agreement that would reduce production to between 32.5 million and 33 million barrels per day.

The organization is to hold a key meeting in Vienna on Wednesday, where the deal was expected to be rubber stamped.

But reaching a deal has proved problematic, amid disagreements over which producers should cut and by how much.

Technical talks between OPEC members on Monday failed to reach an agreement on output cuts, with Iraq and Iran - OPEC’s second and third-largest producers – resisting pressure from Saudi Arabia to reduce production.

Most analysts still believe OPEC will sign an accord to cut output, but doubts remain over whether it will be enough to support the market.

Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) said Tuesday it still sees a deal as likely but added that the risks of failure have risen.

“A strong announcement from OPEC to cut meaningfully could lift oil to $50 or more over the following days, particularly if supported by strong words from non-OPEC, before focus shifts to execution risk, sustainability and any non-OPEC supply response” analysts at Morgan Stanley wrote.

NYMEX crude weaker in Asia as all eyes on OPEC Vienna talks - Sean Seshadri

Crude prices drifted lower in Asia on Tuesday as wrangling by OPEC members over the details of a proposed output curb continues.

U.S. crude oil fell 0.38% to $46.90 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Global benchmark Brent futures were last quoted at $49.01 a barrel.

Late on Monday experts from OPEC nations failed to reach a compromise on the details to curb output by country, Reuters said, setting up a bleak outlook for a final deal when a full meeting starts on Nov. 30. As well, Algerian and Venezuelan oil ministers traveled to Moscow on Monday in a final attempt to persuade Russia to take part in cuts instead of merely freezing output.

Later Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute will release its estimates of U.S. crude and refined product inventories at the end of last week. The figures are followed on Wednesday by more closely-watched official data from the U.S. Department of Energy.

Overnight, oil prices jumped in choppy trade on Monday after Iraq’s oil minister said he was “optimistic” that Wednesday’s crunch OPEC meeting will yield an agreement on output cuts.

Prices jumped after Iraqi oil minister Jabar Ali al-Luaibi said Monday he is “optimistic” that OPEC will reach an agreement that is acceptable to all this week.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is attempting to get its 14 member states, along with non-OPEC member Russia, to implement coordinated production cuts aimed at reducing a global supply glut that has seen oil prices halve in two years.

In September the producer cartel reached an agreement that would reduce production to between 32.5 million and 33 million barrels per day.

But reaching an agreement on a deal to cut output has proved problematic, with some producers reluctant to curb production. Over the weekend Saudi Arabia’s oil minister Khalid al-Falih said oil prices will stabilize in 2017 without an intervention from OPEC.

Gold recovers in Asia as investors see buying opportunities - Sean Seshadri

Gold prices gained in early Asia on Monday as investors focused on the recent declines as an opportunity to buy.

Gold for December delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 0.73% to $1,187.00 a troy ounce. Silver futures on the Comex were flat at $16.554 a troy ounce, while copper futures dipped 0.24% to $2.657 a pound.

This week brings U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for November on friday as well as data on U.S. economic growth and manufacturing for fresh indications on the likelihood of a December rate hike. Investors will also be watching euro zone inflation data and manufacturing reports out of the U.K. and China.

On Monday, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi is due to testify about the ECB’s outlook on economic and monetary developments and the consequences of Brexit to the Economic Committee in the European Parliament.

Last week, gold prices closed at the lowest level in nine months on Friday as expectations for higher U.S. interest rates continued to cloud the demand outlook for the precious metal.

Safe haven demand for gold has been hit since the U.S. presidential election amid expectations that increased fiscal spending and tax cuts under the Trump administration will spur economic growth and inflation.

Faster growth would spark inflation, which in turn would prompt the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy a faster rate than had previously been expected.

The precious metal has also been weighed down by bets that a rate hike by the Fed in December is a near certainty. According to Investing.com's Fed Rate Monitor Tool, 95.4%

Oil prices static on uncertainty over planned production cut - Sean Seshadi

Oil prices were little changed on Thursday as uncertainty ahead of a planned OPEC-led crude production cut and thin liquidity during the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday kept traders from making big new bets.

At 1040 GMT (5:40 a.m. ET), Brent crude futures (LCOc1) were trading at $48.89, down 6 cents from their close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude (CLc1) was down 2 cents at $47.94 per barrel.

Traders said market activity was low due to the U.S. holiday, and there was a reluctance to take on big price bets due to uncertainty about a planned oil production cut, led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

OPEC is due to meet on Nov. 30 to coordinate a cut, potentially together with non-OPEC member Russia.

Russia could revise down its 2017 oil production plans if a global output freeze pact comes into force, effectively cutting output by 200,000-300,000 barrels per day, Energy Minister Alexander Novak said on Thursday.

OPEC will probably propose other producers cut their oil production by 880,000 barrels per day for six months starting from Jan. 1 2017, Azerbaijan Energy Minister Natig Aliyev wrote in a local newspaper on Thursday.

But an OPEC source told Reuters that OPEC was yet to make a final proposal to non-OPEC countries on joint production cuts, which will be discussed on Nov. 28 in Vienna.

Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro said on Wednesday an OPEC deal to cut output and hike oil prices was "imminent," and dispatched his oil minister to Russia to help bring other producers on board..

Most analysts believe some form of production cut will be agreed, but it is uncertain whether it will be enough to prop up a market that has been dogged by a supply overhang for over two years, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

"We expect OPEC will reach an agreement at next week's biannual meeting in Vienna... If OPEC does successfully reach an agreement, prices are likely to test the year high in Brent of $53 per barrel," ANZ bank said in a note to clients on Thursday.

IEA Director Fatih Birol told Reuters in Tokyo on Thursday that even if production is cut, prices could soon come back under downward pressure again as the OPEC-led cut would enable U.S. shale oil drillers to massively increase their own output.

Oil prices edge higher despite doubts on OPEC-led cuts - Sean Seshadri

Oil prices turned positive on Wednesday despite investor doubts that OPEC will agree to a production cut large enough to make a significant dent in the global glut of crude.

Members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will meet next week on Nov. 30 in Vienna to decide on the details of an agreement to cut output that the group has been trying to hammer out since September.

Oil prices were lower in the morning but turned positive after the Energy Information Administration said U.S. crude stocks unexpectedly fell 1.3 million barrels last week. [EIA/S]

In the U.S. market, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures (CLc1) rose 8 cents to $48.11 a barrel by 12:35 p.m. EDT (1735 GMT) after trading between $47.40 and $48.43.

Brent crude futures (LCOc1) were up 5 cents at $49.16 a barrel, also trading in $1-range between $48.56 and $49.50.

Calendar spreads, the difference in price between one month and the next in the futures market, showed little signs that traders are pricing in a big change in market fundamentals.

The front to second-month WTI calendar spread traded at its widest level in seven months on Tuesday, although it narrowed slightly on Wednesday. The one to six-month spread traded at one of the widest levels since August.

The WTI cash roll, which allows physical traders to roll long positions forward, traded down to negative $1.80 a barrel on Tuesday, the weakest since March.

All are indications that traders expect little change in oversupply in the market in the near term.

"Looking at the forward curve, the spread has gotten substantially weaker on the WTI side ... so that's bearish and pressures the front of the curve," said Tariq Zahir, an analyst at Tyche Capital Advisors in New York.

"There's going to be some cut, but is Saudi Arabia really going to take the lion's share of the cut?"

Doubts remain over whether the group will agree to a proposed cut of 4 percent to 4.5 percent that has been discussed. That would imply a supply cut of more than 1.2 million barrels per day, according to Reuters calculations.

Iraq has been one of the more reluctant members to agree to a cut, but Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi told reporters on Wednesday in Baghdad that they were willing to lower their output.

Separately, non-OPEC member Russia has said it would cut production, but domestic oil companies have not worked out details, muddying the outlook for cutting output.

Oil climbs on hopes for OPEC output cut deal - Sean Seshadri

Oil prices climbed on Tuesday, as market sentiment was boosted by growing expectations that major oil producers will come to a deal to rein in output at a meeting next week.

U.S. crude oil was up $1.34 or 2.87% at $47.66 a barrel at 0950 ET.

Global benchmark Brent futures were at $48.13 as barrel, up $1.27 or 2.69%.

Oil prices were boosted following reports that the energy ministers from Iraq and Iran were backing a proposed OPEC output cut aimed at curbing oversupply that has pressured prices lower for over two years.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is to meet on November 30 to decide on strategy for the first half of next year.

But many market analysts remain skeptical of the potential deal, amid uncertainty over how any agreement would be implemented.

OPEC reached an agreement to limit production to a range of 32.5 million to 33.0 million barrels per day at a meeting in September.

But production by OPEC members hit a record high in October of 33.64 million barrels per day.

Reaching an agreement on a deal to cut output has proved problematic, with some producers, most notably Iran, reluctant to curb production.

Iran has ramped up production in a bid to regain market share after international sanctions against it were lifted last January.

Analysts also warned of potential volatility in the oil market this week, with trading volumes expected to be lower ahead of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday and Friday.

Gold ticks up but holds near 6-month low on U.S. rate hike hopes - Sean Seshadri

Gold prices ticked higher in European hours on Monday, but held near the lowest level since May on expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike and fiscal stimulus by President-elect Donald Trump.

Gold for December delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange tacked on $6.15, or 0.51%, to $1,214.85 a troy ounce by 3:33AM ET (08:33GMT). It fell to $1,201.30 on Friday, a level not seen since May 30.

Market analysts warned that the outlook for gold remains cloudy in the near-term, given a U.S. interest rate hike in December is now a near-certainty.

According to Investing.com's Fed Rate Monitor Tool, odds for a rate hike at the Fed's December 13-14 meeting are at 100%.

Prices of the yellow metal are down more than 7% so far this month amid optimism that increased U.S. fiscal spending under a Trump administration will spur economic growth and inflation, which would ultimately lead to an era of higher interest rates.

The precious metal is sensitive to moves in U.S. rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bullion, while boosting the dollar in which it is priced.

The greenback hovered close to the prior session's 14-year high against a basket of major currencies early on Monday, amid a rally driven by the U.S. presidential election and expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next month.

The dollar index was recently at 101.20, after climbing to 101.54 on Friday, a level not seen since April 2003.

A stronger U.S. dollar usually weighs on gold, as it dampens the metal's appeal as an alternative asset and makes dollar-priced commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies.

Meanwhile, the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury was down 0.4 basis points at 2.333% in early trade, pulling back from a 12-month high of 2.364% set late last week.

Also on the Comex, silver futures for December delivery inched up 7.9 cents, or 0.48%, to $16.70 a troy ounce during morning hours in London, after falling to its lowest level since June 8 at $16.43 on Friday.

Elsewhere in metals trading, copper futures rallied 5.2 cents, or 2.11%, to $2.521 a pound, amid expectations that President-elect Donald Trump’s plans to ramp up fiscal spending and cut taxes will spur economic growth and inflation.

The metal is regarded as a leading indicator of the global economy. It is used in the construction of buildings, power generation and transmission and the manufacture of consumer electronics.

Gold prices gain in Asia as support continues despite Fed hike views - Sean Seshadri

Gold gained in Asia on Thursday as investors continued to support the yellow metal despite a widely expected Fed rate hike next month.

Gold for December delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 0.27% to $1,227.15 a troy ounce. Copper futures on the Comex for December delivery fell 0.53% to 2.454 a pound

Overnight, gold futures inched higher in early Europe trading on Wednesday, but gains were limited amid mounting expectations that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates next month.

Market analysts warned that the outlook for gold remains cloudy in the near-term. Gold prices are down more than 6% over the past week amid optimism that increased fiscal spending and tax cuts under a Trump administration will spur economic growth and inflation, which would ultimately lead to an era of higher interest rates.

Investors are currently pricing a 90.6% chance of a rate hike at the Fed's December 13-14 meeting, according to Investing.com's Fed Rate Monitor Tool.

The precious metal is sensitive to moves in U.S. rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bullion, while boosting the dollar in which it is priced.

The argument for higher rates was mildly dented as U.S. producer price index rose 0.8% in October, disappointing expectations for an increase of 1.2%. The core PPI, which excludes food and energy, fell 0.2% last month, compared to expectations for a 0.2% gain.

A separate report showed that U.S. industrial production was flat in October, confounding expectations for a 0.2% increase.

NYMEX crude falls in Asia as API build more than expected - Sean Seshadri

Crude oil prices fell in Asia on Wednesday as U.S. industry estimates showed another solid build in inventories.

Crude oil for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 0.13% to $45.73 a barrel.

The American Petroleum Institute (API) said Tuesday crude oil inventories rose 3.65 million barrels last week, building on an increase of 4.4 million barrels the previous week and rose more than expected. Gasoline inventories recorded a slight draw of 160,000 barrels in the week while there was an increase in distillate inventories of 3.0 million barrels, the first gain in six weeks.

Cushing recorded a build of 1.13 million barrels after a slight increase the previous week.

Official data from the Energy Information Administration will be released Wednesday.

Overnight, oil prices were higher during North America trading on Tuesday, extending overnight gains as market participants continued to weigh prospects of a coordinated production cut among major global oil producers.

Elsewhere, Brent oil for January delivery on the ICE Futures Exchange in London was last quoted at 46.96 a barrel.

Bloomberg reported that several OPEC members were engaged in a last-minute push to overcome divisions between the cartel’s biggest producers.

Qatar, Algeria and Venezuela are leading the push to finalize a deal, while Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran are at odds over how to share output cuts agreed at a September meeting in Algiers, according to a delegate familiar with the talks.

The oil group reached an agreement to cap output to a range of 32.5 million to 33.0 million barrels per day in talks held in Algeria in late September. However, OPEC said it won’t finalize details on individual output quotas until its next official meeting in Vienna on November 30.

The cartel pumped 33.64 million barrels of crude per day in October. The figures added to skepticism over the implementation of a planned deal by OPEC to limit production.

The possibility that producers could walk away empty-handed from the November meeting looms large after Iraq, Iran, Nigeria and Libya all signaled they might not take part in the proposed production cut deal. Russia’s unclear stance is also fueling uncertainty.

Gold down in Asia after China industrial output, retail sales noted - Sean Seshadri

Gold prices fell in Asia on Monday after China data mildly disappointed and investors infrastructure spending plans by president-elect Donald Trump with the Republican part in control of both house of the U.S. Congress.

China said fixed asset investment for October rose 8.3%, beating the 8.2% rise seen year-on-year and industrial production gained 6.1%, below the expected 6.2% rise seen and retail sales increased 10.0%, below the 10.7% increase seen.

Earlier, Japan reported third quarter GDP jumped 0.5% quarter-on-quarter and at a 2.2% pace year-on-year, handily beating expected gains of 0.2% and 0.9% respectively. Separately, comments from Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda on inflation were noted.

Gold for December delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 0.55% to $1,217.55 a troy ounce. Also on the Comex, silver futures for December delivery dropped 1.03% to $17.203 a troy ounce, while copper futures jumped 2.31% increase to $2.565 pound.

Copper was boosted last week after Trump raised the prospect of increased infrastructure spending, while recent signs of strengthening demand in China have also underpinned prices.

Later this week, investors will be looking to congressional testimony by Fed Chair Janet Yellen on Thursday for fresh indications on whether interest rates will rise next month.
Last week, gold prices fell to five month lows on Friday as risk appetite recovered following Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election, sapping investor demand for safe haven assets.

Market sentiment was boosted by optimism that increased fiscal spending and tax cuts under a Trump administration will spur economic growth and inflation.

Gold prices were also pressured lower by the stronger U.S. dollar and ongoing expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate increase in December.

Expectations for higher U.S. interest rates remained intact amid optimism that a pick-up in growth will allow the Fed to tighten borrowing costs.

Investors currently price an 81.1% chance of a rate hike at the Fed's December meeting; according to federal funds futures tracked Investing.com's Fed Rate Monitor Tool.

Gold is sensitive to moves in U.S. rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bullion, while boosting the dollar in which it is priced.

NYMEX crude slightly weaker in Asia ahead of China trade data - Sean Seshadri

Crude oil prices eased slightly in Asia on Tuesday with China trade in focus for demand cues from the world's second largest importer.

Crude oil for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 0.02% to $44.92 a barrel.

In China, the trade balance for October is expected to show a surplus of $51.7 billion with exports seen down 6.0% year-on-year and imports showing a 1.0% decline.

Overnight, oil prices pushed higher during North American hours on Monday, as appetite for riskier assets improved after the FBI said no new evidence was found to warrant charges against Hillary Clinton in the investigation of her emails just two days before the U.S. election.

The news lifted a cloud over Clinton's presidential campaign and possibly blunted momentum for rival Donald Trump.

Markets have tended to see Clinton as the status quo candidate, and news favoring her bid often boosts risk appetite.

Elsewhere, Brent oil for January delivery on the ICE Futures Exchange in London rose 33 cents, or 0.72%, to $45.91 a barrel. It fell to $45.08 in the prior session, a level not seen since August 11.

Chances of a coordinated production cut among major global oil producers are in focus.

OPEC reached an agreement to cap output to a range of 32.5 million to 33.0 million barrels per day in talks held in Algeria in late September. However, the 14-member oil group said it won’t finalize details on individual output quotas until its next official meeting in Vienna on November 30.

The possibility that producers could walk away empty-handed from the November meeting looms large after Iraq, Iran, Nigeria and Libya all signaled they might not take part in the proposed production cut deal. Russia’s unclear stance is also fueling uncertainty.

Gold posts modest gains in early Asia as China trade, U.S. polls eyed - Sean Seshadri

Gold prices posted modest gains in early Asia on Tuesday in cautious trade as investors await China trade data, the U.S. presidential election and note increased expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike next month.

Gold for December delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 0.09% to $1,283.10 a troy ounce.

Also on the Comex, silver futures for December delivery were quoted higher. Copper futures inched up 0.04% to $2.313 a pound.

Copper futures have been well-supported in recent sessions as traders bet that the global economy may be gaining momentum after a long period of sluggish growth.

In China, the trade balance for October is expected to show a surplus of $51.7 billion with exports seen down 6.0% year-on-year and imports showing a 1.0% decline. China is the world's top buyer of copper and second largest gold importer.

Overnight, gold prices were sharply lower during North American hours on Monday, as demand for safe-haven assets ebbed after the FBI said no new evidence was found to warrant charges against Hillary Clinton in the investigation of her emails just two days before the U.S. election.

The news lifted a cloud over Clinton's presidential campaign and possibly blunted momentum for rival Donald Trump.

Markets have tended to see Clinton as the status quo candidate, and news favoring her bid often boosts risk appetite, while weighing on assets perceived as safe.

Prices rallied to a more than one-month high of $1,309.30 last week, as polls showed a tightening U.S. presidential race.

Meanwhile, markets are also expecting a Federal Reserve rate hike next month after a government report on Friday showed solid jobs gains and a rise in wages in October. Investors were pricing in a 78% chance of a rate increase in December, according to Investing.com's Fed Rate Monitor Tool.