Gold recovers from 6-week lows ahead of Yellen speech - Sean Seshadri

Gold prices edged higher in European trade on Tuesday, recovering from the prior session's six-week low as market players looked ahead to comments from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen for further signs of the central bank's likely rate hike trajectory through the end of the year.

Comex gold futures were at $1,251.60 a troy ounce by 3:05AM ET (0705GMT), up $5.10, or around 0.4%. It fell to its lowest since May 17 at $1,236.50 a day earlier.

Gold fell sharply Monday, with prices marking their first decline in four sessions, as a large sell order and a stronger dollar hit sentiment.

Also on the Comex, silver futures ticked up 6.5 cents, or roughly 0.4%, to $16.63 a troy ounce, recovering from the prior session's seven-week low of $16.22.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen is due to speak about global economic issues at the British Academy's 2017 President's Lecture in London at 1:00PM ET (1700GMT) on Tuesday. Audience questions are expected.

Her comments will be monitored closely for any new insight on policy and the timing of when the Fed will next raise interest rates. The Fed chair could be asked about the U.S. central bank's plan to start shrinking its massive balance sheet, which ballooned to $4.5 trillion in wake of the financial crisis.

Besides Yellen, a pair of Fed policymakers are due to make public appearances on Tuesday that may offer further insight into the debate among policymakers on the likelihood of higher interest rates in the months ahead.

Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker is set to speak about the economic outlook and international trade at the European Economics & Financial Centre, in London, while Minneapolis Fed Chief Neel Kashkari will speak at a town hall event in Michigan.

The Fed raised interest rates for the second time this year earlier in June and maintained plans to go ahead with another rate hike by year-end. Despite the Fed's message, market players remained doubtful over the central bank's ability to raise rates as much as it would like in the coming months due to softening inflation.

Futures traders are pricing in less than a 15% chance of a hike at the Fed's September meeting, according to Investing.com’s Fed Rate Monitor Tool. Odds of a December increase was seen at about 35%.

Gold is sensitive to moves in U.S. rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bullion.

Among other precious metals, platinum inched up 0.7% to $924.15, while palladium added 0.3% to $866.52 an ounce.

Gold gains in Asia on safe-have demand from China - Sean Seshadri

Gold held gains in Asia on Friday on safe-have demand from China as borrowing by some major private firms to buy assets overseas comes under the scanner of the country's bank regulator.

Reports overnight said China's banking regulator had asked large lender to check credit risk profiles of several companies that had borrowed heavily in greenbacks to buy assets abroad. But details were sparse and there was no immediate indications on the extent of exposure. China regularly vies with India as the top importer of gold.

Gold futures for August delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 0.25% at $1,252.55 a troy ounce.

Overnight, gold prices remained on track to end higher for a second-straight session, as subdued weekly initial jobless claims data undershot expectations, helping the precious metal shrug off expectations that the Federal Reserve may hike rates later this year.

The latest weekly update on initial jobless claims failed to impress market participants, showing that the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits increased slightly last week.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 3,000 to a seasonally adjusted 241,000 for the week ended June 17, the Labor Department said on Thursday.

Analysts were expecting Initial jobless claims to increase by only 2000 to 240,000.

The move higher in gold prices comes in the wake of a recent shift in sentiment towards safe havens, after oil prices fell to multi-month lows this week.

Some analysts expect, however, that expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise rates later this year will cap upside momentum.

"If the Fed were to follow a more aggressive approach, this could preclude any significant rise in gold prices for the rest of the year," Commerzbank (DE:CBKG) analysts wrote in a recent note to clients.

UPDATE 2-Oil languishes near multi-month lows on glut fears - Sean Seshadri

Oil prices held near multi-month lows on Wednesday as investors discounted evidence of strong compliance by OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers with a deal to cut a global output.

Global benchmark Brent LCOc1 was unchanged at $46.02 barrel at 0651 GMT after falling nearly 2 percent in the previous session to its lowest settlement since November.

U.S. crude futures CLc1 for August were trading up 4 cents at $43.55, after spending much of the day slightly lower and falling more than 2 percent on Tuesday to the lowest since September.

Compliance with an agreement by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers to cut output by 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) for six months from January reached its highest in May since curbs were agreed last year. lack of a positive response in oil prices clearly suggests market participants are not convinced that the OPEC's efforts will help shore up prices in a meaningful way in the short-term as shale supply continues to rise in the U.S.," said Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at futures brokerage Forex.com.

"Unless we see a marked reduction in crude stockpiles, the possibility of further short term falls in the price of oil cannot be ruled out," he added.

The American Petroleum Institute said on Tuesday U.S. crude stockpiles had dropped more than forecast. U.S. crude stocks fell last week, while gasoline and distillate inventories rose. API/S

A government report is due at 10:30 a.m. EDT (1430 GMT) on Wednesday and the official figures often differ sharply from those of the industry group.

OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers' compliance with the output deal reached 106 percent in May, a source familiar with the matter said on Tuesday.

OPEC compliance with the output curbs in May was 108 percent, while non-OPEC compliance was 100 percent, the source said. Another source confirmed compliance by all producers in May was 106 percent.

While compliance is high, it is what went on before the production cut that counts, BMI Research said in a note.

"A number of producers - notably Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Russia - aggressively ramped up output in the run up to the deal, fast-tracking projects, expanding drilling programmes and deploying spare capacity," BMI said.

Thus the production cut is not costless and "should prices relapse again, OPEC has much less in its arsenal with which to respond."

Crude Oil Futures - Weekly Outlook: June 19 - 23 - Sean Seshadri

Oil futures settled a bit higher on Friday, but prices still suffered their fourth straight weekly loss as the market weighed rising U.S. drilling against ongoing efforts by major producers to cut output to reduce a global glut.

The U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude July contract inched up 28 cents, or around 0.6%, to end at $44.74 a barrel by close of trade Friday. It touched its lowest since May 5 at $44.22 on Thursday.

Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil for August delivery advanced 45 cents to settle at $48.15 a barrel by close of trade, after hitting a daily trough of $47.40, a level not seen since May 5.

For the week, WTI lost $1.13, or about 2.4%, while Brent fell 78 cents, or roughly 1.6%. Both have now posted losses four weeks in a row, which marks the longest weekly losing streak since August 2015 for WTI.

Concern that the ongoing rebound in U.S. shale production is derailing efforts by other major producers to rebalance the market remained in focus.

Data from energy services company Baker Hughes showed on Friday that U.S. drillers last week added rigs for the 22nd week in a row, the longest such streak on record, implying that further gains in domestic production are ahead.

The U.S. rig count rose by six to 747, extending a year-long drilling recovery to the highest level since April 2015.

The increase in U.S. drilling activity and shale production has mostly offset efforts by OPEC and other producers to cut output in a move to prop up the market.

Last month, OPEC and some non-OPEC producers extended a deal to cut 1.8 million barrels per day in supply until March 2018.

So far, the production-cut agreement has had little impact on global inventory levels due to rising supply from producers not participating in the accord, such as Libya and Nigeria, and a relentless increase in U.S. shale oil output.

Elsewhere on Nymex, gasoline futures for July tacked on 1.9 cents, or about 1.3% to end at $1.454 on Friday. It still closed down around 3.1% for the week.

July heating oil added 1.2 cents to finish at $1.427 a gallon. For the week, the fuel declined roughly 0.3%.

Natural gas futures for July delivery shed 1.9 cents to settle at $3.037 per million British thermal units. It saw a weekly loss of less than 0.1%.

In the week ahead, market participants will eye fresh weekly information on U.S. stockpiles of crude and refined products on Tuesday and Wednesday to gauge the strength of demand in the world’s largest oil consumer.

Meanwhile, traders will also continue to pay close attention to comments from global oil producers for evidence that they are complying with their agreement to reduce output this year.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Tuesday, June 20

The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, is to publish its weekly report on U.S. oil supplies.

Wednesday, June 21

The U.S. Energy Information Administration is to release weekly data on oil and gasoline stockpiles.

Thursday, June 22

The U.S. government is set to produce a weekly report on natural gas supplies in storage.

Friday, June 23

Baker Hughes will release weekly data on the U.S. oil rig count.

Gold gains slightly in Asia with focus on dollar prospects - Sean Seshadri

Gold rose slightly in Asia on Friday with sentiment subdued following the Fed rate hike and wavering fortunes for the dollar with investors focused on whether the Trump Administration can get back on track with its tax cut and stimulus policies in the face of a tense political debate over Russian interference in the 2016 election.

Gold futures for August delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange inched up 0.04% to $1,255.07 a troy ounce.

Overnight, gold prices tumbled to three week lows on Thursday, pressured by a firmer dollar as risk-on sentiment resumed amid upbeat U.S. economic data and expectations of an additional rate hike later this year.

A raft of better than expected economic reports tapered fears the US economy was set for a slowdown in the second quarter, stoking expectations of an additional rate hike, after the Federal Reserve maintained its outlook of three total rate hikes on Wednesday.

The U.S. Department of Labor reported Thursday that initial jobless claims decreased by 5,000 to 237,000 in the week ended June 4, beating forecasts of a 3,000 decline.

On the manufacturing front, investors cheered a pair of upbeat economic reports on manufacturing activity in the states of New York and Philadelphia. The Philly Fed said its index for current manufacturing activity in the region decreased to 27.6 in June from 38.8 in May. Analysts had expected a reading of 24.

Whereas, in New York, the Empire State manufacturing index climbed to 19.8, after falling to minus-1 in May.

Gold has fallen from yesterday’s high of $1284.20, as dollar has rebounded from its recent slump, following the Federal Reserve decision to hike rates for the second time this year, and maintain its view that a gradual increase in interest rates remained appropriate.

Gold is sensitive to moves higher in both U.S. rates and the dollar – A stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for holders of foreign currency while a rise in U.S. rates, lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bullion.

Oil futures climb 1 percent after U.S. stockpile draw - Sean Seshadri

Oil futures rose on Thursday after slumping to a three-week low in the previous session, buoyed by a report from an industry body that showed U.S. crude stockpiles had fallen more than expected.

Data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed crude inventories were down by 8.7 million barrels at 513.2 million in the week to May 26. That compared with analyst expectations for a decrease of 2.5 million barrels. [API/S]

Brent crude futures for July (LCOc1) were up 40 cents at $51.16 a barrel by 0245 GMT.

On Wednesday, they fell $1.53, or 3 percent, to settle at $50.31 a barrel on their last day as the front-month contract. It was Brent's lowest close since May 10 and the contract dropped 2.7 percent last month, the third monthly decline.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (CLc1) futures were up 38 cents at $48.71 a barrel.

They dropped $1.34, or 2.7 percent, in the previous session to settle at $48.32 per barrel, the lowest close since May 12. The U.S. benchmark also fell for a third month in May, declining 2 percent.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) report on stockpiles is due at 11:00 a.m. EDT (1500 GMT) on Thursday, delayed by a day because of the Memorial Day holiday on Monday.

Further gains may be limited for the two major oil benchmarks as bearish news keeps coming from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other producers including Russia that are locked in a battle against rising shale production in their efforts to boost prices.

Oil futures have given up all the gains posted in advance of last week's agreement between OPEC and non-OPEC producers to extend a production cut for a further nine months.

"Doubts remain as to the likelihood that inventories will fall as OPEC continues to constrain output," ANZ said in a research note.

Output from OPEC rose in May, the first monthly increase this year, a Reuters survey found.

Higher supply from Nigeria and Libya, OPEC members that are exempt from the production-cutting deal, offset improved compliance by others.